The low pressure will further develop across the Celtic sea and is likely to move and settle in Ireland for a couple of days this week. In this period, longer spells of heavy rain are likely across parts of Wales, southwest England, and Ireland, with a risk of heavy and thundery showers affecting other parts of England too. Strong winds are also likely in places especially across the seashore, perhaps with a risk of gales too.
The latest AROME and UKMO have suggested MUCAPE around 700-1000 J/kg in places across most of the UK, with warm air and moister, showers very likely to break out all day across SW England and parts of S Wales, and perhaps produce some plus-type sporadic lightning, and perhaps accomplished with hail and gusty wind. An ENHANCED risk has been issued across Somerset and parts of S Wales, as these areas will see the most frequent lightning. These showers will not last too long, but still can bring flooding in places as there might be areas facing few chains or even lines of thunderstorms. Hence a severe thunderstorms risk has been issued for most part of S England as hail and localised flooding might bring additional hazards.
There are signals of another chain of heavy showers/ thunderstorms spreading NE to parts of SE England, perhaps even develop into MCS, however the likelihood of this is quite low. Even though, an ENHANCED risk has been issued for parts of SE as there is risk of bands of thunderstorms develop there in the evening, but wouldn't last too long.
Issued at: 10:23 (BST) 20/10/2022
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