The moisture with the southwesterly wind will allow a period for thunderstorms to break out across many parts of England, Wales and Scotland. In the afternoon, most unstable convective potential energy (MUCAPE) might exceed 1000 J/kg across inland parts of Ireland. Daytime heating with relatively high MUCAPE will allow thunderstorms to develop widely and perhaps some organised across Northern England and Scotland.
Thunderstorms will most likely stay scattered during the day, but the strong deep-level shear at 12z across Northern England and parts of eastern Scotland can create a favourable environment for thunderstorms to turn more organised. However, these organised thunderstorms will be fast-moving which reduces the risk of flooding.
Across northern parts of Scotland, there is a higher risk of thunderstorms developing as the shear will weaken there, causing the showers across northern Scotland to turn more slow-moving.
Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible to develop, especially across Bristol Channel, and West Midland. However, it is impossible to pinpoint the location of these thunderstorms due to the random nature of showers. Strong gusts are also likely across the south, as 45-55 mph are likely, perhaps 60 mph across southern coasts.
An update will be released on Friday night, potentially expanding the enhanced risks.
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