Convective Outlook Issued: Enhanced risk 14/05/2025 06:00 - 15/05/2025 05:59

A warm and moist theta-e airmass, delivered by a frontal system on Sunday, will continue to enhance instability during Wedneday daytime. MUCAPE of 500–1000 J/kg supports the potential for numerous scattered thunderstorms in a moist environment with high low-level humidity. Cloud tops could once again exceed 36,000 ft, supporting frequent lightning.

Moderate low-level, and mid-level wind shear will support long-lasting thunderstorms, but a rather saturated atmosphere will slightly reduce the risk of frequent lightning compared to Tuesday's risk.

Flash flooding is possible if they train over a small corridor. Hail, up to 1 cm in diameter, is also possible in the strongest cells. Funnel clouds are possible across parts of Ireland, considering the background shear.

Generally speaking, lightning activity is expected to be less than Tuesday for most, but a cell or two capable of producing frequent lightning is still possible to develop during the mid-afternoon before the environment turns saturated.

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