Convective Outlook Issued: Enhanced risk 12/06/2025 00:00 - 12/06/2025 23:59

A Spanish plume will allow very warm theta-e airmass to move across parts of England and Wales on Thursday. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across western parts of the English Channel along a warm front during early parts of Thursday; these thunderstorms will turn increasingly weaker as saturation increases and the weakening of the tongue of theta-e air mass, although few embedded thunderstorms will still be possible during the late morning across parts of SW England and South Wales.

As the warm front clears eastward, another shortwave of theta-e plume, as well as daytime heating, promotes the deepening of surface CAPE, perhaps reaching 800-1000 J/kg across parts of the Midlands during the mid-afternoon. Surface-based convection will become increasingly likely as the CAP is eroded during the early afternoon across parts of the West Midlands and Wales, allowing surface-based thunderstorms to develop. These storms are most likely to initiate across Birmingham or perhaps due to orographic lift across Mid-Wales.

Any storms that managed to develop across the Midlands could be long-lasting due to the strong low-level shear situated across the east, frequent lightning, small hail, and a few brief tornadoes are possible, where the greatest risk of tornado seems to be situated near Manchester. Due to the strong support from deep level shear, these storms can well push northward, perhaps even reaching the Lake district before dying due to the lack of heating during the early night.

Few scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland as the frontal system clear northward during the afternoon as well.

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