An upper low will move north-westward on Sunday afternoon which introduces moisture to southern and central parts of the UK.
The cap is expected to break on late morning, which allows thunderstorms to break out across the west and north England. CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg), aids with daytime surface heating, might allow some stronger thunderstorms in places. Temperature of 25-28C allows instability to build widely. Mid-level atmosphere is not saturated which allows parcels to escalate in the west and north.
The majority of models suggesting clusters of thunderstorms will first develop across Wales and Scotland, then turn increasingly widespread in the late afternoon, especially across West Midlands. These clusters of thunderstorms will move northeast slowly mid afternoon, which increases the risk of gusty wind, some hail and flooding
* Sorry for the late outlook and lack of details as I am currently having food poisoning at the moment
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