An upper low will move southeastward on Thursday, introducing moisture to the British Isle.
Relatively high CAPE CAPE ( 700-1200 J/kg), aid with daytime surface heating, might allow some stronger thunderstorms in places. Dew points of 9-11C allow instability to build widely. A few convergence zones might also boost lightning activity, one of them confined to eastern England, ridging from London to York. An enhanced risk has been issued for these areas as frequent clusters of thunderstorms are likely to develop there, with one or two turning slightly more organised across north London, which will bring locally high rainfall amount and risk of small hail. A severe warning for heavy rain has been issued, as the risk of flooding has increased due to the locally high rainfall total in the past few days.
The majority of models suggest another cluster of thunderstorms initialling West of Dublin, moving southward into southeastern parts of Ireland. Moderate low-level shearing might allow storms to advance southward, which again bring heavy downpours, some small hail and frequent lightning in places, which result in an enhanced risk has been issued in parts of Ireland.
A slight risk has also been issued for eastern parts of Ireland, most parts of England and Wales due to the high instability, sporadic lightning, perhaps with a few hail showers is possible in places.
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