The moisture with the southwesterly wind will allow a period for thunderstorms to break out across Ireland, Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland. Most unstable convective potential energy (MUCAPE) might exceed 1000 J/kg across inland parts of Ireland in the afternoon. Daytime heating with relatively high MUCAPE will allow thunderstorms to develop widely and organise across central parts of Ireland and parts of Northern Ireland, perhaps with some severe size hail as well.
Tall cloud heights and fairly substantial CAPE <0°C allow for hail growth. Along with the substantial LLLRs given strong mid-level cold in place. 0°C reached around 600MB is fairly good for low-end severe hail growth so despite the moderate low-level shear and weak deep-layer shear, this is certainly scope for some hail 1-2 cm in diameter but most hail should stay non-severe. A severe has been added for the area most likely of seeing some low-end severe hail.
There are also a slight chance of elevated thunderstorms across the northern England overnight, as an small area of Theta-W plume move in late evening and early night hours.
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