A low-pressure system, also known as Storm Pierrick, will develop across the Bay of Biscay on Monday, introducing a warm Theta-E plume to the eastern parts of England during the afternoon. Non-convective gusts, localized flooding, and lightning are possible as this complex system moves northward, potentially causing localized disruption and damage.
During Monday early afternoon, an upper trough will introduce a warm Theta-E air mass across the English Channel, moving northward across parts of southern England during the morning. This will provide energy for convective showers to develop, boosting the amount of CAPE (around 400 J/kg) across southeastern England. This might allow a few clusters of thunderstorms to develop across the English Channel, perhaps extending across southeastern England; therefore, a LOW-END ENHANCED risk has been issued. Moderate shearing and an unsaturated profile could allow one or two storms to be long-tracked, potentially developing into a supercell or two. There is some uncertainty about the western extent of the cluster of thunderstorms; therefore, a large slight risk has been issued to cover the south and the east. Some models indicate heavy showers/thunderstorms developing across Cambridgeshire during the evening due to a slight uptake of CAPE. If any initiation occurs, then these thunderstorms could be long-lasting and track themselves into the North Sea due to the strong shearing in this area.
During the early night, isolated elevated thunderstorms could develop across the St George Channel as the drier southerly air collides with the occluded front. Very strong shearing in this area could allow long-lasting storms to develop. A high-end slight risk has been issued for this area. Localized flooding is possible across southwestern parts of Wales. The risk of lightning will move northward overnight, perhaps bringing a couple of isolated lightning strikes across northwest England.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here:
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