A squall line is likely to develop along a cold front as it approaches Ireland and Scotland around mid-morning. This front is expected to bring widespread winds exceeding 50 mph, resulting in squally conditions with heavy rainfall. The primary concerns are strong winds and intense rainfall.
As the morning progresses, lift along the southern regions of England and along the squall line is expected to increase. Consequently, showers may advance into southern England, particularly in areas with over 75 J/KG of 0-3km CAPE, potentially leading to the formation of morning showers moving northeast into the early afternoon. This could result in sporadic lightning.
The risk of severe weather continues into South/Southwest Scotland, where there's an elevated risk due to the presence of 150+ J/KG of 3CAPE along the squall line and wind speeds of 35+ knots of LLS (Low-Level Shear). This combination may lead to the transfer of significant momentum downward, possibly stretching surface vorticity streamwise. In certain areas, this could result in the formation of localized areas of the Low-Level Jet (LLJ), increasing the potential for rotation and the possibility of brief, spin-up tornadoes.
Most of the energy is anticipated to be transferred downward, increasing the risk of spin-up tornadoes and strong wind gusts, particularly in areas categorized as slight risk zones, where the intensity of the squall line and lightning frequency may be higher. Eventually, the cold front is expected to weaken as it moves through Northern England and Scotland by mid-afternoon, gradually losing its intensity and essentially dissipating by the evening.
You can download the kml file of the convective outlook here
(You can upload the file to windy.com to have the graphic overlay)
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