An upper low will bring some heavy and thundery showers to parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland in the late morning and afternoon as it reacts with daytime heating and latent heat. MUCAPE will be relatively high considering at the time of the year, widely 500-700 J/kg, and perhaps reaching 800-1000 J/kg in places. However, highly saturated profiles might limit the amount of lightning, although one or two marginally severe cells might develop in central Ireland. Hence, a severe warning for tornadoes riks has been issued for parts of central Ireland as well, with hodographs supporting low risks of tornadoes in places.
Later in the day, a cold front will move northeastward, bringing a band of torrential rain into parts of southwest England, some of the showers might be able to break the cap and enable thunderstorms to develop, this will most likely occur in the evening across parts of southwest England, Wales, and perhaps northwest England as well. These thunderstorms are likely to be sporadic and weak, but the risks of one or two long-living thunderstorms cannot be ignored across southwest England and south Wales. Therefore, a high-ended low risk has been issued for parts of southern England and Wales for the evening, with a "most likely area of lightning" has been issued for parts of southwest England, Wales and northwest England to highlight the risk of thunderstorms. A severe rain warning has also been issued for parts of southwest England and Wales as there is a risk of cells bringing torrential downpours in these areas, with the potential of exceeding 25 mm within a few hours across Dartmoor, Exmoor and Brecon Beacons.
Issued at: 28/03/2023 19:30 (BST) Version: 1
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